Snap elections in Portugal
For the third time in four years, general elections have been called in Portugal. This time the elections follow a confidence motion tabled by Montenegro’s right-wing government (PSD-CDS), which they lost. This is not merely further evidence of the instability and institutional crisis into which the right and the liberal centre are plunging the country, but specifically reveals the prime minister’s desperate maneuvers to conceal his private business dealings. Indeed, the confidence motion — never likely to be won by a minority government in a polarized parliament — was not politically, but personally motivated. The prime minister was facing a parliamentary inquiry (PCI) on allegations that while in office, he continued to run a company providing services from his personal residence, and received payments from various clients including some seeking casino operating licenses. To avoid the PCI, Montenegro set up the circus of the confidence motion, which he inevitably lost. As a result, the government was forced to resign and the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, called snap parliamentary elections for 18th May.
A brief background of the 2024 elections
As you will remember, the interventions of the IMF, ECB and European Commission in the context of the 2011 balance of payments crisis forced an extreme austerity plan on Portugal, with wages and pension cuts, and pushed the country into recession.
The huge protests against the governing coalition of traditional right wing parties (PSD-CDS) which implemented the austerity measure led to a change of tide in the 2015 elections. The Socialist Party (SP), despite not winning the elections, managed to form a government, thanks to a parliamentary support agreement negotiated with the Left Bloc (LB) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), bringing in the time of the Geringonça. (A word meaning a complicated contraption used in Portugal to describe a coalition government formed by a number of parties in order to keep the party which won a simple majority out of government)
Although the agreement only stipulated collective action on certain issues and excluded others, such as military and European policies, it did lead to an increase in wages and pensions, improvements in the public education sector, public transport, and other social rights. New elections in 2019 confirmed the popularity of such an arrangement: the SP won the elections, and the LB and PCP dropped slightly. However, the SP proved unwilling to maintain its commitment to the left-wing parties. It provoked a political crisis on the pretext of difficulties in reaching agreement on the 2022 budget, which was due to the government’s rejection of a compromise to save the National Health Service (SNS).
The SNS had been corroded over the years by successive alternating SDP/SP governments, which repeatedly granted concessions to private companies and caused the SNS to hemorrhage staff. Low salaries caused many nurses and doctors to emigrate, and private hospitals hired many public service staff. Nevertheless, the SP government opposed the proposal for a new Basic Health Law, a new legal framework for restoring public health policy, presented by António Arnaut (founder and former minister of the SP) and João Semedo (a prominent member of the Left Bloc). In response, the Left Bloc rejected the 2022 budget, as not meeting the needs of the country.
In any case, the SP managed to turn the 2022 budget conflict into a crisis, resulting in new (snap) elections, in which it won an absolute majority. The SP’s ruse was effective and so, from 2022 to 2024, the SP governed with an absolute majority in parliament. It used this to reject the left-wing parties’ proposals, returning to the traditional measures of reducing public investment and financial restrictions to comply with European rules on public deficit and spending. Despite its absolute majority, the government fell apart after Prime Minister, António Costa resigned in the midst of an alleged corruption scandal which, although not involving him personally, implicated his chief of staff. New snap elections were called for March 2024. These elections led to a new government made up of a coalition of the two traditional right-wing parties.
The Montenegro government
The March 2024 parliamentary elections changed the country’s electoral map in two main ways. Firstly, the alliance between the SDP, the largest right-wing party, and a smaller one, CDS, held 28.8% of the votes and went on to form the largest parliamentary group (80 MPs out of 230). The SDP leader — Montenegro — was appointed prime minister. However, his victory was narrow: 28% only gave him an advantage of two MPs, since the SP had managed to get 78 elected. The second change was the significant electoral gain for the far-right party, Chega. In 2022, Chega won 7.2% of the votes and managed to seat 12 MPs. In 2024, it garnered 18%, with 50 MPs elected. It became a decisive force and, although Prime Minister Montenegro rejected any formal alliance, he knew he could count on those votes to back any policy that favored speculative interests. The Left Bloc recovered slightly in these elections (up to 4.4% and 5 MPs) and the other two left-wing parties, PCP and Livre, obtained 3.2% and four parliamentary seats each.
As mentioned above, Montenegro’s government was defeated a year after its election and this defeat has triggered the upcoming elections. The situation is the result of the prime minister’s express and repeated intention to hide his responsibility in a flagrant legal (and ethical) conflict. A member of the government is not only supposed to refrain from conducting private business while in office; they are, in fact, prohibited from doing so by law. The crisis was not caused by difficulties in implementing the government’s agenda; they were well positioned to govern and deliver their program. The government’s budget — under which Portugal will become the European Union country least committed to public investment — embodies the right-wing’s aggressive economic and financial strategy. Despite this, the Socialist Party abstained from voting on the budget, thus allowing it to be passed by coalition party votes. In other cases, joining up with the far right gave the government enough votes for a comfortable majority in parliament on important legislative changes. On central political issues such as immigration, the right-wing has aligned itself with the far right’s rhetoric and policies. It has even gone so far as to make arguments for the far-right agenda. This was the case with the Basic Health Law. The government collaborated with the far right on a revision of the legislation, resulting in the discriminatory prevention of irregular migrants from accessing the Portuguese Health Service. The change in legislation specifically targets sexual and reproductive rights, preventing women and pregnant women, for example, from accessing health care including contraception, pregnancy and postpartum care, and termination of pregnancy — rights which are protected by international conventions.
Open Letter against the amendments to the Basic Health Law
Around 840 health professionals have signed an open letter stating that they will refuse to comply with the government’s decision, which they consider discriminatory, as it imposes new restrictions on access to the National Health Service (SNS) for non-resident foreigners or undocumented migrants. They have stated that they will resort to civil disobedience on this issue. Accusing the government of promoting inequalities and hindering the fight against communicable diseases, the signatories of the Open Letter pledged to continue providing care to all people who seek public health services.
The government budget was characterized by the continued erosion of public services — the hollowing out of the SNS, the crisis in the education sector where there is still a shortage of teachers — along with a fiscal policy that gives tax breaks to large companies while increasing consumer taxes. The mantra of regulating housing by relying on market forces, and promoting tourism as a national goal were also thrown in the mix. The Socialist Party allowed this budget to pass, establishing the foundation on which the government could run the country. All the institutional conditions were therefore met for the government to be able to govern. This makes it evident that the crisis that has arisen and thrown the country into another snap election is not political in nature. Rather it is the result of the prime minister’s private business dealings and his desperate attempt to circumvent democratic scrutiny.
However, though the government was, politically-speaking, in a position to effectively govern, the erosion of its support base was already underway. Portugal’s current housing crisis is a prime example of the success of aggressive liberal policies and its results are negatively impacting the lives of the overwhelming majority of the population. Tourism has become a dominant industry, thereby necessitating political decisions. The Disneyfication of cities has led to changes not only in labour practices — further extending precariousness —but also in the nature of investments, contract selection, and dominant processes of capital accumulation. This has resulted in the displacement of populations from cities, and the transformation of neighborhoods and local commerce. In ten years, house prices have more than doubled; a rate of growth four times higher than the average income from wages. Rents and house prices in Lisbon and Porto are currently higher than in Madrid and Berlin, while the national minimum wage in Portugal is 870 euros and in Spain and Germany it’s 1,184 and 2,222 euros respectively. In Lisbon city centre, 75% of housing is taken up by Airbnb or an equivalent provider. In some avenues and main streets, only a few local remaining residents can be found. This has driven local people out and it is now impossible for young people to aspire to living in the centre. Behind this “success” of liberal housing policies lies social tension and the largest popular protests of recent years.
Several social movements and popular initiatives have been organized in defense of the right to housing. The housing crisis is on the agenda of many social groups, including the feminist and anti-racist movements. It is the country’s biggest issue, and all social activism has been mobilized in this fight against the savagery of the markets and neoliberal policies.
Referendum on local accommodation
In 2022, in Lisbon, a popular initiative — the Housing Referendum Movement, MHR — was born around the proposal for a referendum aimed at restricting local tourist accommodation. After a process of signature collection, the proposal was taken to the Lisbon Municipal Assembly and it was approved in December 2024 (with SP, LB, Livre, PAN and PEV voting in favour). It was sent to the Constitutional Court (CC), which rejected it, raising a set of objections. The MHR decided to insist on the proposal and so, once the issues underlying the CC’s objections had been resolved, the proposal returned to the Municipal Assembly. However, the Lisbon Municipal Assembly made a U-turn. The SP, which had previously approved the referendum proposal, argued that the MHR’s redrafted proposal should not even be discussed by the Assembly. They gained the support of all the right-wing parties represented in the Assembly. There is now an impasse: the referendum proposal is ready to go back to the CC for approval, but the Municipal Assembly has refused to discuss and approve it. Now, the proximity of the local elections will most likely be the argument made to avoid supporting the popular movement’s proposal.
Police violence
Odair Moniz, a Cape Verdean immigrant living in Portugal for over twenty years, was fatally shot by a police officer in the Cova da Moura neighborhood, on the outskirts of Lisbon, on 21 October 2024. The police’s account was disputed by several associations, who demanded a thorough and impartial investigation. They argued that a culture of police impunity should be called into question, in a political context of heightened hate speech against black communities. Pedro Pinto, the parliamentary leader of the far-right Chega party, argued that “if the police shot to kill, the country would have more order”, while Chega party leader, André Ventura, referred to the victim as a “thug” and suggested decorating the police officer who shot him. The officer who fired the shot has been suspended and charged with homicide by the Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The October 26 “No Justice, No Peace” demonstration against police violence in the outlying districts, called by Vida Justa in honor of Odair Moniz, attracted a large number of participants, unlike the far-right demonstration in “Defense of the Police”. However, it must be emphasized that the far-right is not only taking to the streets (as has been done before), but is now doing so in direct confrontation through counterdemonstrations.
Social violence
Portugal, March 2025. Ana Paula is a caregiver for the elderly and earns a minimum wage. With three daughters, she was coming to the end of a pregnancy. As she could no longer pay the rent, she and her daughters moved to a makeshift shelter. It was demolished in front of her just a few days before having the baby. She was told in the maternity ward that if she did not have a home approved by social services, her baby would be taken away from her.
There are thousands of people living in shacks or on the streets because they cannot pay rent. Many have children and, even though they work, they fear losing their children because they do not have decent, adequately-equipped housing. The threat of having custody of children taken away affects hundreds of families and not just those who live in makeshift shelters or on the streets. The same thing happens to someone evicted from a rented house, or who is occupying a home illegally.
Vida Justa (Fair Life) — Less rent, more transport, better pay
The Vida Justa (Fair Life) movement was born in 2023, during the absolute majority legislature of the Socialist Party, and has catalyzed and mobilized a significant proportion of popular discontent with housing policies, the cost of living, and police violence. Coming out of a neighborhood on the outskirts of Lisbon, it has managed to project the voice of the most forgotten and discriminated communities, whether because they are poor, immigrants, or racialized. Their demonstrations – Neighborhood March (Marcha dos Bairros) (March/April 2025), No Justice, No Peace (Sem Justiça não há Paz) (October 2024), Fair Life (Vida Justa) (October 2023) — and forms of organization have contributed to changing the nature of social movement, due to their ability to mobilize and train new political actors and subjects, bringing about diversity in the places for speech, and the people who speak. It is the unfiltered voice of the periphery, and this has resulted in more social and political strength, and a lot of learning about ways of doing things, and building relationships within the spheres of politics and solidarity.
What’s at stake in the 2025 elections
These sudden elections are a bizarre development, but at the same time present a challenge. It’s an election that people don’t want. They voted in a government just a year ago, and have a demanding electoral calendar ahead of them, with municipal elections in September/October 2025 and presidential elections in January (2026). These snap elections are, however, the first national elections after the return of Trump and the oligarchs to the White House, and the global undermining and devastation of democracy currently in effect. These are the first elections against the backdrop of militarization and rearmament in Europe, a choice that will have repercussions on national budgets.
The elections will represent a real contest between the parties. For the outgoing government, this is simply an attempt to call for a plebiscite on the personality of the prime minister; to save his political position and his place in the party. It is very unlikely to succeed. For the far right, this is a new opportunity to establish its presence in government, in alliance with traditional right-wing parties. This is not unprecedented: Mark Rutte, the flamboyant new NATO secretary general, ended his career in the Netherlands by pushing his liberal party into a governing alliance under far-right leadership. However, this is a bad moment for Chega: several of its deputies and other prominent figures have been accused of extraordinary crimes, such as pedophilia, theft, rape and domestic violence. It is a remarkable catalogue of crimes. The Trump case might prove that neo-fascists can ward off investigations by manipulating their voters into believing that all criminal allegations come from a defiant justice system or a persecutory press. However, if the party grows in numbers, it is likely that there will be an increase in instances of corruption and criminality, and the public’s ability to recognize them as such will also grow. In Portugal, a year of the far right as an audible presence in parliament has been enough for us to understand how rapidly democracy can be eroded, and how the unimaginable is normalized.
For the SP under its new leadership, this is an opportunity to recover from the self-inflicted damage caused by its own absolute majority. This still creates difficulties, though: campaigning for votes based on new health and housing policies cannot hide the fact that the party recently had majority rule. They were in a position to act and address the issues, but in fact did not do so. In the policies that most impact people’s lives, SP was part of the problem, not the solution.
The left-wing forces have a huge challenge ahead of them: to fight for greater representation that allows us to create a wave of hope and popular struggle. The political moment is a demanding one. It requires the capacity for reinvention of politics and of the way we construct and communicate our proposals and root them in society. Polls have proven to be unreliable predictors of election outcomes in Portugal, and so it is prudent and wise not to overly rely on them when formulating proposals and developing our campaign. The left has an immense responsibility and the winds are not exactly favorable to us. It is therefore necessary to view these elections with the urgency of doing things differently, because we are in fact responding to a different country. Putting legal limits on rents, respecting those who work, and taxing the rich can be important points of electoral contention as well as catalysts for popular power. A left that presents itself in these elections as if they were just another election, without realizing that the world and the country have changed, is likely doomed to atrophy. Joining forces, understanding the country and the changes within it, experimenting with new forms of mobilizing the people, and rescuing hope will, therefore, prove to be imperative in these elections.
Andrea Peniche is a feminist activist, member of the collective A Coletiva, which participates in organizing the International Feminist Strike in Portugal, and a member of the Left Bloc. She frequently writes for various publications as an author and co-author on issues of feminism and political philosophy. Instagram: a_coletiva_feminismos