France’s Municipal Elections: A Warm-Up for 2027?
As the last vote before the presidential race, France’s municipal elections are following a different pattern to the broader national political scene, with key issues and political alliances varying greatly from one municipality to another. While the Socialist Party (PS) and the Republicans (LR) hope to preserve their deep-rooted local support, the National Rally (RN), La France Insoumise (LFI) and the presidential camp are instead looking to nationalise the vote and to establish themselves as permanent fixtures in the everyday lives of French citizens.
After public interest in national politics surged following the dissolution of the National Assembly in the summer of 2024 and given the absence of a majority government as well as Emmanuel Macron’s stubborn determination to appoint ministers who had been rejected at the ballots, France has been caught in political deadlock and mounting tensions. The recent death of a neonazi activist in Lyon, following a series of racist murders over the past months, is evidence of this increasingly tense political climate. In such a grim atmosphere, and with the presidential elections coming up next year, the French are largely apprehensive of political conflicts in Parliament, as the CEVIPOF’s annual political confidence barometer recently confirmed.
Only mayors, thanks to their proximity to the people, seem to have retained most citizens’ trust. With close to 35,000 municipalities home to 69 million residents, France has on average one mayor per 2,000 inhabitants, as well as hundreds of thousands of local elected officials. This approach to regional organisation, a legacy of the French Revolution, makes it difficult to analyse municipal polls on a national level, as pressing issues and political dynamics vary greatly depending on the city or village. Furthermore, opinion polls are considered extremely unreliable for these elections, as they are based on such small data samples.
The Starting Point
Political parties depend heavily on the trust and fondness French people feel for their mayors. Disavowed and absent from smaller municipalities – which favour non-partisan or citizen-based electoral lists in which candidates are not affiliated with any party and reserve their loyalties for the municipality itself – it is in major cities and mid-sized towns that major political parties have the chance to implement their platforms and demonstrate whether or not they can transform the daily lives of citizens and exercise power at the national level. This is one area where the traditional parties, particularly the PS and LR, and to a lesser extent the French Communist Party (PCF), have been able to capitalise on their presence nationwide for the past several decades. It is also a strategy that the Ecologists (LÉ) tried to replicate after their 2020 wins in Lyon, Strasbourg, Grenoble, Bordeaux, Besançon, Tours and even Poitiers.
Conversely, the parties that, since the 2017 presidential election, have formed the French political scene around three blocs – Macron’s camp (Renaissance, Horizons and the Democratic Movement), the RN and LFI – still enjoy very little grassroots support locally. This conundrum has two explanations. On the one hand, the last municipal elections were held in 2020, right in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading participation levels to plummet to 20 per cent. For comparison, 2014 saw a turnout of 45 per cent for the first round and 42 per cent for the second. With young and working-class voters not showing up to the polls, the incumbent mayors up for reelection, members or affiliates of the PS or LR, were reelected in many cases.
On the other hand, the more recent breakthrough of LFI and the RN has caused these parties to postpone grassroots efforts, given that their local branches are not large enough to provide a sufficient number of candidates. Macron’s party, although largely made up of former PS and LR bigwigs, has generally failed to establish itself on the ground, mainly due to a widespread rejection of the party’s neoliberal policy and its open contempt for local authorities. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe (2017-2020), himself mayor of Le Havre, conversely built up his party, Horizons, by relying heavily on local support.
In order to establish a long-term presence in local communities, LFI, who had supported citizen electoral lists in 2020, and the RN, who govern the towns of Hénin-Beaumont (Nord), Fréjus (Var) and Perpignan (Eastern Pyrenees), are banking on timing being in their favour. With the municipal elections marking the last vote before the presidential election, they are hoping to “nationalise” the election by capitalising on widespread rejection of the government. In their campaign, the RN rarely makes mention of their own mayors’ track records, which are easily open to criticism for the privatisation of many public services, significant strengthening of municipal police forces, conflicts with organisations that do not share their world view, and even corruption scandals.
Though their worldviews are diametrically opposed, both LFI and the RN regularly remind the public in their municipal campaigns that the illegitimate governments in power since 2024 are supported in the Assembly by a bloc that ranges from the PS to LR. Conversely, the traditional parties are only focusing on local issues in their campaigns. For instance, in Paris the PS candidate Emmanuel Grégoire never mentions his term as a Member of Parliament, and this is no accident. Elected with the New Popular Front on a platform to break with “Marconism”, he never voted to censure the government, even though it included his main opponent in the mayoral race, Republican Minister Rachida Dati.
High Expectations, Limited Power
Even if some voters cast their ballots based on candidates’ party affiliations and national politics, local issues are clearly still taking centre stage in the campaign. Certain topics are mainstays of any local election: security, transportation and the role of cars, local public services and the environment. The issue of strengthening municipal police forces, whose powers are soon to be expanded, has also been subject to heated debate. In response to citizens’ demands for security, a number of candidates are promising to increase police force numbers, arm municipal police officers and install more surveillance cameras.
While there is complete consensus on the issue from the centre-left PS all the way to the far right, the left is divided on the matter. Some LÉ mayors, for example, have opted for their local police force to be armed, like in Bordeaux and Lyon, while others reject this move along with the addition of more surveillance cameras, as in Grenoble and Besançon. LFI advocates for an unarmed municipal police force, limited to a community-based role in order to rebuild confidence among citizens. These are positions that the right and the far right attack relentlessly, accusing LÉ and LFI of fostering insecurity.
The left does seem to have won the cultural battle regarding the importance of the ecological transition at the local level. A recent poll reveals overwhelming support, in many cases more than 80%, for the creation of more green spaces, the renovation of municipal buildings, the development of public transportation and cycling infrastructure, and organic meals at affordable prices in local canteens. Even restrictions on automobile traffic are supported by 65% of those surveyed.
Despite the recurring cliché of environmentalists as treehugging Bohemians, it turns out that residents of working-class neighbourhoods are just as supportive of these initiatives as anyone else. Even as right-wing candidates, such as Rachida Dati in Paris or Jean-Michel Aulas in Lyon, continue to prioritise cars in their platforms, recent developments in large cities seem to have convinced most citizens that this isn’t the way forward. However, it is not certain that the LÉ – with whom many such projects have originated, whether as mayors or in municipal majorities – will benefit from this in the polls, as PS, LFI and even some centrist candidates are also enthusiastic about these issues.
Housing in the Spotlight
One largely overlooked issue has finally come to the fore during this campaign: housing. This is largely thanks to skyrocketing property prices, particularly in large cities. The proportion of the budget devoted to housing continues to rise, as does the country’s homeless population, which has more than doubled after ten years of Macronism and now exceeds 350,000.
While there is broad consensus on the need for greater regulation of tourist rentals such as Airbnb, other responses vary greatly between the left and the right. The right wants to weaken the law on solidarity and urban renewal, which was passed in 2000 by a Socialist government with the support of a Communist housing minister. It prescribes a quota of 25 percent social housing for municipalities in hotspots. The right also calls for deregulation, for example it wants to make it possible to re-let energy-inefficient apartments and simplify building regulations in favor of investors.
The PS generally proposes maintaining the status quo and applying existing laws such as experimental rent control, which allows certain cities to set rent ceilings and tenants to request reimbursement of excess rents from their landlords. This is an interesting mechanism, but it is based on average market prices and is subject to too few controls, limiting its ability to stop prices from climbing.
LFI, and to a lesser extent the Communists and Ecologists, want to go further by greatly increasing monitoring, making greater use of the right of pre-emption and requisitioning empty housing to accommodate unhoused people. This measure has been possible since the post-war period but requires the approval of local administrators who have long blocked any attempts to put it into effect.
In many respects, French mayors are still increasingly constrained. Although the state has transferred many powers to them since the first decentralisation laws of the 1980s, financial resources have not kept pace. The general budget allocation, a transfer from the state to local authorities, is not indexed to inflation and is being increasingly reduced: it fell by another 2 billion euros this year following the budget supported by the PS, LR and the presidential camp, while the RN proposed 5 billion less. The state has also reduced the fiscal autonomy of local authorities by abolishing several local taxes, including the business tax in 2010, the housing tax on main residences in 2021, and the CVAE, a local tax on companies, will be phased out by 2030.
The remaining local financial resources are also problematic. Property tax is based on values set in 1970, which deepens inequalities, as apartments from the 1960s and 1970s are heavily taxed, even though low-income households live in them in many places today, especially in large housing estates. In contrast, apartments in the city center, which did not have running water and toilets at the time, are taxed low, although many of them have long since been gentrified. Since duties levied on real estate transfers depend on the value of the property, this creates a vicious circle where cities have a vested interest in higher prices because it means more tax revenue. In view of all these rules set by the state, local authorities’ have only very limited options for tenant-friendly policies.
Normalizing the National Rally, Demonizing La France Insoumise
Local issues and the limits of mayoral power in France receive little media attention. On television and in the press, only the big cities and national political alliances attract any attention. With a second-round presidential duel between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella looking increasingly likely, the question of which candidates will rally support for each camp is becoming central. Macron’s camp may write off both “fringes” as equally undesirable, but the alliance’s internal divisions and probable defeat in its target cities (Le Havre, Annecy, Nice, Paris, Bordeaux) demonstrate just how deeply the French people have rejected it. It is possible that the centrists will be forced to choose between the left and the far right next year.
For the RN, this election will mark a major step in their path towards mainstream acceptance. While this process began 15 years ago, it has accelerated massively in recent years, despite the party’s continued links to smaller, violent ultra-right groups and its leadership standing trial for embezzlement of public funds. Nevertheless, it has managed to win over the economic bourgeoisie through lunches with business leaders and capital-friendly measures, positioning itself as a refuge for employers frightened by the left and witnessing the death throes of Macronism. The RN is also counting on its strengthened presence in the National Assembly to put an end to accusations of amateurism, and its unwavering support for Benjamin Netanyahu’s war has made voters forget the longstanding antisemitism within the party.
It now hopes to capitalise by winning important cities in the south and north-east of France such as Toulon, Orange, Calais and even Nice, where its ally Eric Ciotti is currently leading in the polls. The far-right party also wants to demonstrate its hegemony over the right and finally break the barrage républicain, a firewall of centrist parties that has thus far kept it out of power. To this end, Jordan Bardella has officially reached out to LR to form alliances in the second round of municipal elections. The case of Marseille will be closely watched as well, where the RN candidate is neck and neck with the outgoing PS mayor. The Republican candidate, trailing far behind, has just adopted a slogan that echoes Vichy France’s leader Philippe Pétain, and her rallying in France’s second city would be a clear sign of unity among the right ahead of the presidential election.
In contrast to the RN, LFI is being increasingly demonised. Already accused of “populism” and fiscal irresponsibility in the past, the radical left party has also been labelled antisemitic since late 2023 for its support of the Palestinian cause and accused of complicity in murder after the death of a neo-Nazi activist in Lyon (the circumstances of the death are still being investigated). The RN, much like LR president Bruno Retailleau, no longer hesitates to call for a block against LFI, hoping to make people forget its own links with violent far-right groups and isolate the country’s leading left-wing force. Other left-wing parties – who allied with LFI in the 2022 and 2024 legislative elections – are therefore constantly called upon, often in an accusatory tone, to rule out any alliance with this “unacceptable” party. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his associates, however, are not backing down. They reject the accusations levelled against them and justify links with the Jeune Garde (an outlawed anti-fascist collective) as necessary to protect their events from far-right threats in the face of insufficient police protection. This could cost them the support of some centrist voters in head-to-head contests with the RN, but it is still too early to gauge whether it will have any real impact on the presidential election.
A Divided Left?
Within the PS, calls to isolate LFI have received widespread support. After benefiting from disaffected voters in the general election, the PS now want to win back the electorate lost to Emmanuel Macron over the past ten years. Contrary to their campaign promises, PS MPs have not censured the governments of François Bayrou and Sébastien Lecornu. They argue that stability is needed, and position themselves as negotiators capable of compromise in order to water down the austere aspects of recent budgets. It has been a wasted effort. Austerity continues almost totally unabated, but the PS hopes to benefit from a breakup of Macron’s bloc in the absence of an obvious successor, as it would allow the PS to present a centrist option in the presidential election built around Raphaël Glucksmann or François Hollande. Ultimately, the Socialists hope to retain the cities they hold, and perhaps even win a few more, in order to enter the presidential election in a strong position.
To keep its mayorships and prevent leftwing voters from turning to LFI, the PS have made agreements in most cities in the first round with the Ecologists and the Communists. In return, the latter hope to retain their strongholds and secure a place in future majorities, despite competition in certain leftwing cities such as Lille and Strasbourg. While Ecologist and Communist leadership are in favour of alliances with the PS at the local level, they have voted for motions of censure alongside LFI in the national Parliament. They therefore find themselves caught in continually shapeshifting alliances, rallying to the highest bidder, depending on the elections.
But these strategic choices are often a subject of contention within the party. In Seine-Saint-Denis, a working-class suburb of Paris where the Communists retain strong support, the Communist Party made an agreement with LFI to avoid competition. Communist-LFI alliances like this have met with intense pressure from national leadership, and today some still stand while others have broken down. Several hundred activists from the LÉ signed a petition against these alliances, though some leaders joined the LFI lists in Paris, Montpellier, Avignon and Toulouse, often because of disagreements over local projects such as the PS’ support for an unnecessary motorway in Toulouse.
Despite this handful of fightbacks and alliances, LFI is approaching the municipal elections in quite an isolated position. Its victories are unlikely to be numerous, except in working-class towns in the Paris suburbs (Saint-Denis, La Courneuve, Evry), Lyon (Vaulx-en-Velin, Villeurbanne, Vénissieux), Lille (Roubaix), and possibly Toulouse, which would give it a prominent showcase. In all these cities, the party is fielding local MPs or well-established figures, clear evidence of its growing territorial roots.
In all other cases, LFI’s objective seems to be to exert as much influence as possible in the first round and then negotiate with the rest of the left in order to secure a presence on municipal councils and perhaps even some seats in the Senate, the upper house of the French parliament. This would be a firm reminder to the rest of the left that Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party is indispensable, at least not without running the risk of losing entire towns and cities. Despite their small number of mayors, LFI and the RN are poised to be the real winners of these elections, setting the stage for a new, highly polarised electoral landscape in 2027.
Author: William Bouchardon heads the economics department of the French online medium Le Vent Se Lève (LVSL)
Image credits: IMAGO / ABACAPRESS